Can Australia achieve 100% renewable energy?

50% solar, 50% sun

To estimate how many wind turbines and solar panels Australia would need if it decided to meet 50% of its energy needs from wind and 50% from solar power, we'll follow a calculation based on current energy consumption and typical capacities of wind turbines and solar panels.

Steps to Estimate Wind Turbines and Solar Panels Needed

  1. Current Energy Consumption:
    • According to recent data, Australia's total energy consumption is around 6,200 petajoules (PJ) annually.
  2. Divide Energy Needs:
    • Since we are aiming for a 50-50 split between wind and solar energy:
      • Energy from wind = 50% of total energy consumption
      • Energy from solar = 50% of total energy consumption
    • Convert total energy consumption to kilowatt-hours (kWh) for easier calculation.
  3. Estimate Energy Production from Wind and Solar:
    • Energy from Wind:
      • Wind turbines typically have a capacity factor of around 30-40%.
      • Calculate the annual energy production needed from wind turbines.
    • Energy from Solar:
      • Solar panels have a capacity factor of around 15-25% depending on location and technology.
      • Calculate the annual energy production needed from solar panels.
  4. Calculate Number of Wind Turbines and Solar Panels:
    • Based on the typical capacity of wind turbines and solar panels, estimate the number of units required to meet 50% of Australia's energy needs from each source.

Let's proceed with the calculation:

Detailed Calculation

  1. Convert Energy Consumption to kWh:
    • Total energy consumption: 6,200 PJ
    • 1 petajoule (PJ) = 101510^{15} joules = 2.7778×1082.7778 \times 10^8 kWh
    • Convert PJ to kWh: 6,200×2.7778×108=1.7222×10156,200 \times 2.7778 \times 10^8 = 1.7222 \times 10^{15} kWh
  2. Energy Needs from Wind and Solar:
    • Energy from wind (50%): 0.5×1.7222×1015 kWh=8.611×1014 kWh0.5 \times 1.7222 \times 10^{15} \text{ kWh} = 8.611 \times 10^{14} \text{ kWh}
    • Energy from solar (50%): 0.5×1.7222×1015 kWh=8.611×1014 kWh0.5 \times 1.7222 \times 10^{15} \text{ kWh} = 8.611 \times 10^{14} \text{ kWh}
  3. Estimate Capacity Factors and Production:
    • Wind Turbines:
      • Assume an average capacity factor of 35% for wind turbines.
      • Required annual production: 8.611×1014 kWh/0.35=2.46×1015 kWh8.611 \times 10^{14} \text{ kWh} / 0.35 = 2.46 \times 10^{15} \text{ kWh}
      • Average annual production per wind turbine: 2 MW×8760 hours/year×0.35=6.132 MWh/year2 \text{ MW} \times 8760 \text{ hours/year} \times 0.35 = 6.132 \text{ MWh/year}
      • Number of wind turbines needed: 2.46×1015 kWh/6.132 MWh/year=401,463 turbines2.46 \times 10^{15} \text{ kWh} / 6.132 \text{ MWh/year} = 401,463 \text{ turbines}
    • Solar Panels:
      • Assume an average capacity factor of 20% for solar panels.
      • Required annual production: 8.611×1014 kWh/0.20=4.3055×1015 kWh8.611 \times 10^{14} \text{ kWh} / 0.20 = 4.3055 \times 10^{15} \text{ kWh}
      • Average annual production per solar panel: 330 W×8760 hours/year×0.20=576.72 kWh/year330 \text{ W} \times 8760 \text{ hours/year} \times 0.20 = 576.72 \text{ kWh/year}
      • Number of solar panels needed: 4.3055×1015 kWh/576.72 kWh/year=7.46×1012 panels4.3055 \times 10^{15} \text{ kWh} / 576.72 \text{ kWh/year} = 7.46 \times 10^{12} \text{ panels}

Conclusion

To achieve a 50-50 split between wind and solar energy for all its energy needs, Australia would need approximately 401,463 wind turbines and 7.46 billion solar panels. These estimates provide a rough idea of the scale of infrastructure required, considering current energy consumption and typical capacities of renewable energy sources.

Approximately 45 million solar panels are currently in operation across Australia. This estimate is based on the number of rooftop solar installations and the typical size of these systems.

Approximately 5,000 wind turbines are operational in Australia. This estimate is based on the number of wind farms and the average number of turbines per farm.